Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia

Working papers of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research receive only limited review. Views or opinions expressed in working papers are attributable to the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute. 2 1. Introduction The enormous social, economic, and political changes in Central and Eastern Europe after 1989 were associated with an abrupt fall in fertility. In 1997 the total fertility rate (TFR) reached its lowest level so far in many countries, e. fertility has meant a rapid population decrease in recent years. For instance, in 1996 the annual population growth rate was-0.53% in Bulgaria,-0.37% in Hungary, and-0.32% in Russia (the respective rates of natural increase were-0.54%,-0.37%,-0.55%; Council of Europe, 1998). This observed decline in population frequently prompted a pessimistic debate in the popular media, and sometimes also in the scientific literature. The observed demographic trends were associated with phrases such as " demographic crisis " , " breakdown " , " catastrophe " .